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acentuadas de preo.
Mercado externo: os saldos comerciais tendem a valorizar
demasiadamente a moeda nacional, com conseqente
rebaixamento de preos internos.
Acelera-se o processo de concentrao tanto a jusante como a montante da agropecuria, fenmeno que pode propiciar incremento de margens com prejuzo ao produtor.
1 o Z O o Z 9 o Z U o Z o Z Z " . R U 7 ? A TRANSFERNCIA * " $ C a u s a d a n o - s u t e n t a b i l i d a d e : e x p r e s s i v a t r a n s f e r n c i a d e r e n d a a t r a v s d e q u e d a a c e n t u a d a d e p r e o s e m r e l a o a 1 9 9 4 - d e s s e s e t o r p a r a a s o c i e d a d e c o m o u m t o d o .
N a l t i m a d c a d a , e s s a t r a n s f e r n c i a p o d e t e r u l t r a p a s s a d o a c a s a d o R $ 1 t r i l h o ; a t u a l m e n t e , e l a p a r e c e t e r - s e e s t a b i l i z a d o e m t o r n o d e R $ 1 5 0 b i l h e s p o r a n o .
E s s e s v a l o r e s s u p e r a m e x p r e s s i v a m e n t e a s a p l i c a e s q u e a s o c i e d a d e f a z n o s e t o r n a f o r m a d e i n v e s t i m e n t o s e m p e s q u i s a , e x t e n s o , i n f r a e s t r u t u r a , e t c . .
A M E A A : S e n o h o u v e r u m a c o m p e n s a o d a s o c i e d a d e p e l a s t r a n s f e r n c i a s r e c e b i d a s d o a g r o n e g c i o , o s e t o r f a t a l m e n t e t e n d e r e s t a g n a o o u r e g r e s s o .
N Z Z Z | " H
9 9 @ COMPENSAES
$ i n v e s t i m e n t o s e m c i n c i a e t e c n o l o g i a a g r o p e c u r i a , e d u c a o e s a d e
r u r a l ,
m e c a n i s m o s u s t e n t v e l d e s e g u r o r u r a l , c o n t r a t o s a t e r m o e c o n t r a t o s
f u t u r o s p a r a g e r e n c i a m e n t o d e m e r c a d o .
r e c u p e r a o e a m p l i a o d a i n f r a e s t r u t u r a l o g s t i c a a r m a z e n a m e n t o ,
t r a n s p o r t e r o d o v i r i o , h i d r o v i r i o e f e r r o v i r i o .
a c e l e r a o n a s n e g o c i a e s i n t e r n a c i o n a i s , e m t o d o s o s n v e i s O M C ,
A L C A , U n i o E u r o p i a , n e g o c i a e s b i l a t e r a i s
p r o g r a m a s a n i t r i o e d e q u a l i d a d e d e p r o d u t o s
p r o g r a m a e f i c a z p a r a a r e a a m b i e n t a l , c u i d a n d o d a g u a , d a s f l o r e s t a s , d o h o m e m d o c a m p o e d o c o n s u m i d o r .
E F * E 4 C / E " E < A DESAFIOS $ ? Criao de um sistema de poupana que incentive a
canalizao de recursos tanto horizontalmente (entre setores que momentaneamente estejam superavitrios e deficitrios) e entre ciclos de alta e baixa.
Compatibilizar os benefcios e os custos da concentrao agroindustrial a jusante e a montante da agropecuria
r 2 q = " " ? ~ . Condicionantes do Agronegcio f " Fatores Exgenos
Macroeconomia
Inflao controlada,
juros altos, dlar barato
baixo crescimento mdio
=> mercado interno retrado
I x x I c c b N 1 . P I B e S E L I C - ( % a . a . ) 1 9 9 5 a 2 0 0 5 ( ( f P + 2.Evoluo do IPCA e Dlar real 1995 a 2005 , , f < 0 Condicionantes do Agronegcio f " Fatores Exgenos
Economia Internacional
Crescimento relativamente alto
Juros baixos, mas em alta
Mercado externo como motor do crescimento do agronegcio
" 9 9 9 : "
: 3. PIB Mundial e das Taxas de Juros dos EUA (%) 1990-2005 ; ; " : 4.Comrcio Mundial (1989 a 2005) ! !
4 5.Importaes - Exportaes Brasileiras 1994 a 2005 5 5 f X 1 Condicionantes do Agronegcio f " Fatores Exgenos
Papel do Estado
Recursos escassos: menor interveno
Negociador externo (problemtico)
Gerador de tecnologia (instvel)
Regulador: normas e fiscalizao (problemtico) : / Condicionantes do Agronegcio f " Fatores endgenos
Concentrao e verticalizao da cadeia
Varejo
Indstria
Financiamento e gerenciamento de risco em substituio ao Estado
Avano ao Centro-oeste, Nordeste e Norte
Economias de escala: unidades maiores
Avano tecnolgico
n Z * " Z Z Z * . # k %
O Agronegcio " 7 Desempenho
Ao consumidor
Ao produtor
No mercado externo ( - - 7 3 + 6. Produo, rea e Produtividade 1967-2005 , , + @ 7. PIB Total e do Agronegcio 1995 a 2005 (Taxas de crescimento) : A ) b # b . " i # x 8 . P I B T o t a l e d o A g r o n e g c i o ( m i l h e s d e r e a i s ) 1 9 9 4 / 2 0 0 5 = = . + 9. PIB do agronegcio 1994/2005 (R$milhes) , , " .
{ , + 10. Composio do PIB do Agronegcio - 2005 , , . 4 > 11. DISTRIBUIO DO FATURAMENTO AGRCOLA (97,5 bilhes) - 2005 ? ? > 1 2 . P r e o s ( U S $ ) , V a l o r d e E x p o r t a o ( U S $ ) e V o l u m e d o A g r o n e g c i o 1 9 8 9 2 0 0 5 P P " . 8
# ~ 1 3 . n d i c e d a T a x a E f e t i v a d e C m b i o d o A g r o n e g c i o 1 9 8 9 2 0 0 5 @ @ " . (
$ H 14.ndices de Atratividade das Exportaes (R$) Cmbio e Preos (US$) $ I " F " H \ " / 15. IAT e Exportaes do Agronegcio 1989-2005 0 0 .
, ) 16. IAT e Exportaes Agrcolas 1989-2004 " *
) - 3 17.IAT e Exportaes de Produtos Animais 1989-2005 " 4 *
3 : 18. Destinos da Exportao Caf 2000/2005 : DESENVOLVIDOS ; ; L 7 19.Destinos da Exportao Acar 2000/2005: EMERGENTES 8 8 @
@ 20.Destinos da Exportao Carne Bovina 2000/2005: DIVERSIFICADO A A L ; 21.Destinos da Exportao Frango 2000/2005: DIVERSIFICADO < < L C 22. Destinos da Exportao Suco de Laranja 2000/2005: DESENVOLVIDOS D D * ) C 23. Destinos da Exportao Farelo de Soja 2000/2005: DESENVOLVIDOS D D L > 24.Destinos da Exportao Soja Gro 2000/2005: DIVERSIFICADO ? ? L 6 0 25.LUCRATIVIDADE IPR, IPP E PRODUTIVIDADE TOTAL " 1 0 R ! & 26. ndices de Produtividade 1989/2005 ' ' & % C 27. Preos Recebidos(IPR) e ndice de Atratividade (IAT) (Reais) D D C s ( < 28. Preos de Caf: Mercado Externo e ao Produtor 1998/2005 . = 2
< v ) L 29.Preos de Laranja: Mercado Externo (suco) e ao Produtor (fruto) 2001/2005 " M B L w * = 30.Preos de Soja: Mercado Externo e ao Produtor - 1998/2005 > > = y + P 31. Preos de Acar (Mercado Externo e Interno), do lcool e da Cana: 1998/2006 " Q H P p & 6 32. Preos Reais ao Produtor e ao Consumidor 1994/2005 7 7 6 5 R 33.PRODUTO E PIB DO AGRONEGCIO TRANSFERNCIA E EFEITO CAMBIAL (RSmilhes de 1994) " S > . @ : ? 34.Perdas do Agronegcio de 2005 e 2006, Total: R$36,8 bilhes @ @ .
% $ ; H 35.Distribuio das Perdas nas Lavouras 2005 e 2006 (Total:R$37 bilhes) I I H * < J 36.Distribuio do Ganhos nas Lavouras:2005 e 2006 (Total:R$12,6 bilhes) K K J 0` ` ̙ 33 ` 333 MMM ` ff3 33 3 f ` f ` f ` 3 > ? " d d @ , | ? " d d @ " @ ` n ? " d d @ @@ `` P R @ ` ` p > > $ (
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